In times of uncertainty, it is perhaps useful for buyers and sellers to pause and take stock of the recent state of the real estate market in the region of Greater Victoria.
The recent weakness in the real estate market in Victoria is perhaps best viewed as a part of the normal real estate cycle. Victoria has enjoyed one of the strongest and most stable real estate markets in the country. The average sale price of a single family dwelling has increased from $8,795 in 1960 to $878,767 in 2019. Chart 5 shows: (i) the annual percentage change and (ii) the change in the average sale price from 1960 to 2019. The average sale price increased in forty-five of the fifty-nine year period and decreased in fourteen. In fact, there were only five years that experienced a decrease in the average sale price of greater than -2%: 1982 (-20%), 1984 (-6%), 1995 (-5.5%), 2011 (-2.6%) and 2019 (-3.1%). The average sale price of a single family dwelling has increased an average of about +9.1% per annum during this 59-year period, about +5.6% above the annual increase in the Consumer Price Index. Chart 5 also illustrates the cyclical nature of the real estate market in Victoria. There is an historic pattern of a sustained period of rising prices (i.e., 1961 - 1969, 1971 - 1981, 1986 - 1994, 2001 - 2007 and 2014 - 2018) that is followed by a period of flat or falling prices (i.e., 1970, 1982 - 1985, 1996 - 2000, 2008 - 2013 and 2019)
After a weak start with declining sales and decreasing prices, the real estate market in Victoria picked up momentum in the latter part of 2019. Residential listings through the VREB’s MLS® totalled 11,437, up +3.6% from 11,044 in 2018. Residential sales totalled 6,887, up +2.2% from 6,770 in 2018, but still well below the record of 10,028 sales in 2016.
For the most part, the real estate market in Canada has languished over the past couple of years. For example, in 2018, national sales were down nearly -5% from the preceding year and the average sale price of a residential property was down -4.1%. (This decline was largely attributable to a price decrease of -4.4% in Greater Toronto, Canada’s largest real estate market.) However, there are strong indications that the recent decline in housing prices, lower mortgage rates and continued population and economic growth, have led many prospective buyers to return to the real estate market in some areas of the country in the latter part of 2019.
Despite an increase in sales, prices in the Victoria real estate market have remained flat over the past several quarters. The upward pressure on prices eased in the 3rd Qtr of 2018 and after a modest decrease, prices have levelled off. On the supply side, the number of listings was up from the same period last year. On the demand side, there was an increase in the number of sales.
The real estate market in Canada has been in a slump during the past couple of years. BC has been particularly hard hit. Despite this, BC still has the most expensive real estate in the country.
There were 2,155 properties (including lots and acreage) active on the VREB’s MLS® database for the Greater Victoria area (i.e., excluding the Malahat, Up-Island and the Gulf Islands) on Oct 1, 2019, up +10.0% from the inventory level of 1,964 a year ago.
Compared to most areas of the country, the real estate market in Victoria put in another solid performance in 2018. Despite slowing sales and properties taking longer to sell, prices continue to edge up, particularly in the condo and townhouse sectors of the market.
In June 2018, Central Mortgage and Housing Corporation(CMHC), released the results of a survey of home buyers who purchased a home in 2017 in the Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver Census Metropolitan Areas. The objective was to determine buyers’ attitudes as to factors drive the market, particularly prices. The study was an effort to explore “behavioural economics” or what the layman might term the psychology of buying.
There were 1,910 properties (including lots and acreage) active on the VREB’s MLS® database for the Greater Victoria area (i.e., excluding the Malahat, Up-Island and the Gulf Islands) on July 1, 2018, up +50.3% from 1,271 a year ago. As an additional point of reference, the inventory was 2,796 on July 1, 2015.
